Total Probability of False Detection - 4 Sigma Significance

The following is an exhaustive list of all scenarios to be checked for yielding a significance greater than 4 sigma, but less than 5 sigma.  The total probability from all of these scenarios is less than 6.3 X 10^-4, which is the threshold for a significance of 4 sigma.

Scenario resulting in at least 4 sigma significance	Chance Probability Due to Background Fluctuation
7 events in a single bin in 100 second search	8.7 X 10-6
One bin with 4 events in the 1 second search and one bin with 5 or 6 events in the 100 second search	7.6 X 10-6
One bin with 6 events and one bin with 5 or 6 events in the 100 second search	1.96 X 10-5
One bin with 6 events in the 100 second search coincident with a satellite detection	5.3 X 10-7
Total	3.64 X 10-5

Total Probability of False Detection - 3 Sigma Significance

The following is an exhaustive list of all scenarios to be checked for yielding a significance greater than 3 sigma, but less than 4 sigma.  The total probability from all of these scenarios is less than 2.7 X 10^-3, which is the threshold for a significance of 3 sigma.

Scenario resulting in at least 3 sigma significance	Chance Probability Due to Background Fluctuation
6 events in a single bin in 100 second search	5.86 X 10-4
4 events in a single bin in 1 second search	2.27 X 10-4
Three bins of 5 events in the 100 second search	3.6 X 10-5
One bin with 5 events in the 100 second search coincident with a satellite detection	3.0 X 10-5
Total	8.79 X 10-4