Next Steps

In this section, we list the next steps for the analysis.

Unfolding

• Unblinding plans

  • Unfold 12 years of data for IC86 from 2011 to 2022

  • Determine regularization strength on data

  • Perform unfolding on data

    • Build matrix on all 4 primary models

    • Fit prompt/conv normalization (significance) on all 4 unfoldings each

    • Build average of all 4 unfoldings → nominal values

• Post-unblinding checks

  • Check the data-MC agreement for proxy variable (leading energy)

  • pre-fit (on the entire Snowstorm dataset)

  • post-fit (re-weight to fitted systematics)

  • Divide total dataset in 3 subsets á 4 years to analyze systematic impacts over the years

  • Divide dataset into 4 seasons

• Paper Proposal

  • Present status of forward folding in November

  • If results look promising → cross—checks can be done until end of January next year

    • Combined forward and unfolding paper: Discovery of prompt?

  • Elif, forward folding needs much more work

    • Unfolding paper: Measurement of muon flux